Baltimore Ravens
At
Denver Broncos
Thursday, September 5th at 8:30 pm, Sports Authority Field, Denver, CO
The Ravens begin the defense of their Super Bowl title when they travel to Denver to take on the Broncos. This is being dubbed as a rematch of last year’s epic playoff game won by the Ravens, but both teams are viewing it as one game to start their new season. What happened last year will play no part in the outcome of this game. Both teams expect to be in the playoffs and while a loss in Week 1 likely won’t matter all that much, a win certainly would be better. The Broncos come into the game as 8.5 point favorites. Who will win? Here is my take:
Ravens offense vs. Broncos defense
There is no more evidence that the 2012 game will not matter in this game than looking at both of these units. The Ravens are without Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin, while Denver lost Elvis Dumervil to the Ravens and Von Miller to a six-game suspension. So, both units will be relying on some new players to step up and produce.
Given the fact that the Broncos lost their best two pass rushers the Ravens, the offensive line should have an easier time protecting Flacco. Also there should be more time for Joe to throw the ball, which means the receivers will have time to exploit the Broncos secondary. I guarantee everyone, especially the Broncos, remember what Torrey Smith did to Champ Bailey last year.
My concern for the Ravens offense is their lack of experience and talent in the receiving corps and I wonder if this will lead to conservative play calling and a heavy dose of Ray Rice. Certainly anytime Ray Rice touches the ball it usually is a good thing, but in the NFL you cannot be a totally one-dimensional offense or any defense can stop you. Both the Ravens offense and Broncos defense have questions about who will step up and whoever answers that the best will have the advantage. For me, it’s a toss-up.
Advantage: Even
Broncos offense vs. Ravens defense
Unlike their respective units on the other side of the ball, both of these units upgraded in the offseason and should be improved from last year. The Ravens defense got younger and faster and improved their pass rush immensely. The secondary will be much better with the return of Lardarius Webb who will have a tough match up against Demaryius Thomas. The toughest match up for the Ravens will be finding someone to cover Wes Welker. I expect we will see Jimmy Smith on the field a lot to attempt to cover Welker and, if he cannot do this successfully, it will be a long day for the Ravens defense.
Getting pressure on Peyton Manning is a must. The Ravens were able to do this last season and if they can again on Thursday night, they should be able to create some turnovers and limit the Broncos scoring. This is a tough match up for the Ravens, but also not an easy on for the Broncos. Ultimately there may just be too many playmakers for the Ravens defense to deal with for four quarters.
Advantage: Broncos
Special teams
Special teams will likely play a huge role in this game and both teams are very good in this aspect. We saw last year that both teams have an above average return man (although I give the edge to Jacoby Jones) and two of the best kickers in the league. Good field position will be important and if one team can have their return man break one for a touchdown, they will likely end up winning the game. Despite the Ravens yielding two returns touchdowns against the Broncos in the playoff game last year, I believe Jacoby Jones and Justin Tucker give them a slight advantage in this aspect.
Advantage: Ravens
Prediction
Currently the line in this game is Denver -8.5 and that should tell you that the odds makers are begging people to take the Ravens. This means they expect Denver to win pretty handedly. Many people are bringing the revenge factor as a component on why Denver will win this game, but I don’t think that plays a factor at all. I do, however, take into account that the Ravens finally know they can beat Peyton Manning, which should help in their game planning, but I believe this game will be won by whichever team executes the best and has the best game plan.
I believe both teams will definitely be playoff teams and contend for the Super Bowl, and a loss here by either team won’t change that. Week 1 in the NFL is the toughest week to pick games because you don’t know which projected bad teams will be good and vice versa. I believe this game goes down to the wire, but ultimately I just don’t think the Ravens offense will be totally in sync yet. The Broncos win a close one, although I hope I am wrong.
Broncos 24, Ravens 21
Follow Marco on twitter @mromanell and southbmore.com @southbmore1
