Green Bay Packers (2-2)
At
Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
Sunday at 1pm, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Line: Packers -3
The Ravens face their stiffest test of the season when they welcome Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday. Both of the Packers losses this season have come on the road, while the Ravens are 2-0 at home. Will those streaks continue?
The Packers can light up the scoreboard but their defense loses them a lot of games, and they will be without their best player on that side of the ball. So what will Sunday hold, will the Ravens get their biggest win of the season?
Here is my take on the game:
Ravens offense vs. Packers defense
What Aaron Rodgers has done over the past few season has been exceptional, especially given the fact that his defense very rarely helps the team win games and often allows a lot of points to opposing offenses. The Packers do have some talent on defense, but as a unit they have struggled. Plus they are going to be playing without Clay Matthews this Sunday.
Ray Rice seemed to get back on track a bit last week with his two touchdowns but he did not have a high YPC average. The Packers defense surprisingly only yields 86 yards per game on the ground. Given the stat that the Ravens are something like 35-1 when Rice touches the ball 25 times or more, I still suspect he will factor heavy into the game plan.
With Eugene Monroe supplanting Bryant McKinnie, hopefully the offensive line gels and gives Flacco time. If they do, he should be able to pick apart a mediocre Packers secondary. Torrey Smith is a mismatch for the Packers corners and if Jacoby Jones returns there will be one more weapon for the Packers to game plan for. This game will likely be a shootout where the Ravens will need to score 30 points or more to win, so expect a lot of pass attempts from Flacco. I think he will have a huge game and Torrey Smith will continue to show that he is on his way to being an elite receiver.
Advantage: Ravens
Packers offense vs. Ravens defense
Terrell Suggs looks like he is back to playing at the level he did when he won defensive MVP two years ago and he pretty much single-handedly won the game for the Ravens last week. However, Aaron Rodgers can make every defense look very bad.
The Packers have actually been really good running the ball this season as they are averaging 140 yards per game on the ground. In order to stand any chance of winning, the Ravens will need to shut down the run. I know putting the ball in the hands of Aaron Rodgers is generally a losing a proposition, but making a team one-dimensional on offense is much better than having them execute both running and throwing.
If the Ravens stand any chance of slowing the down the Packers offense Terrell Suggs will have to play like he did last week, maybe better. I just don’t see the Ravens shutting down Rodgers and the receivers for the Packers. Their goal might just have to be to hold them to under 30 points.
Advantage: Packers
Special Teams
Randall Cobb is the biggest playmaker on the field and, unfortunately for Ravens fans, Cobb wears green and yellow. Cobb has not been the primary returner on kickoffs and has split punt return duty with two others but, if he is back there, it would behoove Sam Koch to kick away from him.
Despite his struggles last season Mason Crosby has yet to miss a field goal this season but I am sure if he is forced to attempt a game-winning or tying field goal from more than 40 yards the Packers will be holding their breath.
The Ravens actually have a return touchdown, while the Packers don’t, and if Jacoby Jones returns the return game will be even better. Despite his one rocky game, Justin Tucker is still the kicker I would rather have over Crosby in this game.
Advantage: Ravens
Prediction
For as many eggs as the Ravens have laid on the road against bad teams the last few seasons, they have also beaten some really good teams at home when not many people gave them a chance to win, which is exactly the case here seeing how they are three-point underdogs at home. Joe Flacco seems to elevate his game against the upper echelon quarterbacks and the Ravens will need him to play well to have a chance in this game. The Packers have yet to win on the road and they are coming into one of the best home field advantages in the NFL.
Call me a homer all you want but I just have a feeling that Ravens find a way to get the job done and beat the Packers. Crabcakes > Cheese. Let’s hope my prediction here is better than Kevin Lynch’s prediction of the Atlanta Dream to win the WNBA title.
Ravens 33, Packers 30
Follow Marco on twitter @mromanell and southbmore.com @southbmore1
