New York Jets (5-5)
At
Baltimore Ravens (4-6)
Sunday at 1pm, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Line: Ravens -3.5
If there is anyone reading this who seriously thought that the Jets would have five wins at this point of the season, or even at the end of the season, let me be the first to congratulate you! I certainly thought they would be fighting for the number one pick in next year’s draft.
The reason Jets have won five times is simple, their defensive front seven is maybe the best in football and Geno Smith hasn’t made mistakes. In their losses however, and especially on the road, Smith has looked flat-out awful. He has thrown 10 of his 16 interceptions on the road this season, and the Jets have lost four games on the road by a combined score of 137-46. So, to say they have struggled on the road is an understatement.
If the Ravens defense can’t hold the Jets offense in check and create turnovers they do not deserve to win the game. This is a game the Ravens must win, but will they? Here is my take on the game.
Ravens offense vs. Jets defense
Last week Ray Rice made his triumphant return from the back of the milk carton to the Ravens backfield. He finished the game with 131 yards rushing on 25 carries and a touchdown. This, however, was done against the worst run defense in football, which is the exact opposite of what the Ravens will face this week versus the Jets’ best run defense in the league.
I am a huge Joe Flacco supporter and tend to give him the benefit of the doubt for interceptions and bad games, but he has not been sharp all season. And, his interceptions last week were a big reason the Ravens lost. The offense has been good enough to hang around and give the Ravens a chance to win on the final drive, but they need to be better than that. They need to put teams away, period.
The Jets give up just more than 250 pass yards per game, so they are vulnerable in the pass game and the Ravens will need to exploit that. Obviously the success of the offense hinges on the offensive line giving Joe Flacco time to throw and, in turn, Flacco making good throws and decisions. If they can get any type of a running game going that would certainly help.
Overall, the Ravens have yet to prove they can score consistently on a good defense.
Advantage: Jets
Jets offense vs. Ravens defense
Breaking down this matchup is simple: the Jets have a good running game, but not many weapons at receiver and a rookie quarterback. They will look to have success running the ball against the Ravens and limit the number of times Geno Smith has to throw the ball. If the Ravens can’t stop the Jets running game, this will be a close game with the Jets having a legitimate shot to win. If they can, and put the game in the hands of Geno Smith on the road, the Ravens should come out victorious.
This game provides a chance for the Ravens defense to prove something to me. They need to keep the Jets off the field, hold them to three-and-outs, don’t turn an average quarterback and receivers into good ones, and make the big stop when needed.
The stats show the more times in a game that Smith attempts to pass, the more mistakes he makes. The Ravens need to force the Jets to pass the ball more than 20 times. If they do, they will likely create turnovers and win the game. If they don’t, and if Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell can run the ball effectively, this will likely be another game that will come down the last drive in the 4th quarter. I think the Ravens defense actually steps up this week and forces Geno Smith to have a bad day.
Advantage: Ravens
Special teams
Both teams average almost the same amount of yards per game on punt and kick returns and have solid place kickers, but I still give the advantage to the Ravens. Jacoby Jones and Tandon Doss give the Ravens a chance to break a long return at any time and we may see that happen this week. Field position will be important and, if this game comes down to a field goal for the win, both teams like their chances with their respective kickers.
Advantage: Ravens
Prediction
The stats show that Geno Smith struggles on the road and therefore the Jets are only 1-4 away from home. However, they have a good running game and good defense, which is precisely what you need to win games on the road.
The Jets have been blown out in three of their five road games this season, two of which were against the Bills and Titans, teams that do not have the quarterback or skill position players the Ravens have. It is time for the Ravens to step and put a team away early. They need to stop the run and create turnovers and score touchdowns off of those turnovers. The longer the Jets hang around, or lead, the more confidence Smith has and the less he has to throw the ball.
This is the start of a three-game stretch at home against teams the Ravens should beat. If they win all three, they will be in good position to contend for a wild card. I believe they take the first step towards this win streak on Sunday and win their eighth straight game against the Jets.
Ravens 20, Jets 10
Follow Marco on twitter @mromanell and Southbmore.com @southbmore1
